It has been four months since Russia invaded Ukraine, which caused trade flows to be disrupted and caused futures’ prices to rise. The fear of a grain crisis is slowly giving way to the hope that important producers will harvest large enough harvests to help repair war-torn reserves. This is essential for the production of wheat, which is needed to feed the world’s population, corn, which is needed to feed hogs, chickens, and cattle, and oilseeds, which are needed to make food.
“Supply may not be as impaired as we think because other areas will compensate for any losses from Ukraine, and it is happening across the board,” said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services in London.
It is anticipated that Australia, which is one of the top exporters of wheat, will produce another massive crop this year. On the other hand, corn is piling up outside bins in the principal growing region of Brazil. The worry that spring weather problems would drastically cut down on the amount of land used for growing grain and soybeans in North America has dissipated.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex is on course to have its worst monthly loss since 2011. Concerns about decreasing grain and oilseed supplies, as well as fears that an economic downturn could reduce demand, have pushed crop futures lower from recent highs. While such improvements often take time to reach grocery shelves, Darden Restaurants Inc., owner of the Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse restaurants, reports that chicken and beef prices are cooling slightly.
Fuel pump costs will also have a significant impact on the direction of food inflation for the rest of the year. According to Joe Glauber, former head economist of the US Department of Agriculture, supermarket prices are projected to “moderate over the next six months, particularly if oil prices decline.”
As of June 24, the average daily price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States had fallen for ten consecutive days after reaching some of its highest levels on record. Crude oil futures are down more than 10% from a near all-time high in the days after Russia’s late-February invasion on Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain and vegetable-oil shippers. Fertilizer, a major expense for farmers, has fallen after reaching new highs.
The United Nations’ food price index fell from a record high in March after the war stifled Ukrainian exports and provoked a slew of sanctions against Russia. Even if the rate of increase slows, high food prices will continue to put pressure on the poor. A government prediction released last week predicts that food prices will rise by much to 8.5 percent this year, however the analysis did not account for the recent decline in agricultural futures.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the more positive commodity watchers, claimed prices haven’t peaked yet, despite Bloomberg’s broad index of spot commodities falling around 13% from a record high.
“We agree that when the economy is in a recession for long enough, commodity demand falls and hence prices, fall,” experts such as Jeffrey Currie stated in a note. “We are not yet at that state, with economic growth and end-user demand simply slowing, not falling outright.”
Darden Restaurants is enthusiastic about the future. The Orlando, Fla.-based company says it is not passing on higher meat, dairy, and wheat prices to customers because it does not expect the higher expenses to last. Meat prices are starting to “come down a little bit,” and impending crop harvests could help lower wheat prices, according to Chief Financial Officer Rajesh Vennam last week.
Wheat and soybean futures have lost roughly 15% this month, while maize has fallen 13%. Coffee, sugar, and cocoa have all taken a step back.
Food is more of a national security issue in China than an inflation concern. As grain and cooking-oil prices fall, June consumer-price growth in China is projected to be less than 2.5 percent, according to Zhaopeng Xing, senior China analyst at ANZ Bank China Co. in Shanghai.
However, given the uncertain future for grain supplies from Ukraine, India, and other key exporters, he believes it is still too early to declare an end to food inflation.
Palm oil, the world’s most widely used vegetable oil, has fallen almost 30% from its peak as leading shipper Indonesia increases exports to reduce bloated stocks. The decline, combined with a drop in soybean oil and other commodities, might mean cheaper household products like chocolate, margarine, and shampoo. However, as with other agricultural markets, any sign of supply disruption or adverse weather might spark another wild ride.
For the time being, the reduction in essential commodities may provide a much-needed halt in inflation.
“Markets would really love to be able to breathe less stressfully again,” said Arnaldo Correa, a partner at Archer Consulting in Sao Paulo. “Light a candle for your guardian angel, and let’s see how things will play out.”
SK Hynix of South Korea Will Start A US Chip Facility In 2023.
SK Hynix of South Korea plans to select a US location for its advanced chip packaging plant and break ground there in the first quarter of next year, according to two people familiar with the matter, helping the US compete as China pours money into the burgeoning sector.
The plant, which is expected to cost “several billions,” would begin mass production in 2025-26 and employ approximately 1,000 people, according to one of the sources, who declined to be identified because the plant’s details have not been made public.
According to the source, it would be near a university with engineering talent.
According to one of the sources, the company “hopes to make a site selection and break ground sometime around the first quarter of next year.”
The new plant was announced last month as part of a $22 billion US-based investment package in semiconductors, green energy, and bioscience projects by SK Group, South Korea’s second-largest conglomerate.
The White House announced that $15 billion would be allocated to the semiconductor industry through research and development programs, materials, and the establishment of an advanced packaging and testing facility.
“R&D investments will include the establishment of a nationwide network of R&D partnerships and facilities,” the source said, adding that the packaging facility would combine SK Hynix memory chips with logic chips designed by other US companies for machine learning and artificial intelligence applications.
Following the recent report about the timing of the groundbreaking, the South Korean company confirmed that it plans to select a site for the plant in the first half of next year, but no decision has been made on when construction will begin.
Most basic, low-value chip packaging operations were long ago outsourced to overseas factories, mostly in Asia, where chips are placed into protective frames and then tested before being shipped to electronics manufacturers.
However, new battle lines are being drawn in the race to develop advanced packaging techniques, which involve combining multiple chips with different functions into a single package, enhancing overall capabilities while limiting the added cost of more advanced chips.
“While the United States and its partners have advanced packaging capabilities, China’s massive investments in advanced packaging threaten to upend the market in the future,” the White House stated in a report released in 2021.
According to the report, an executive at China’s top chipmaker SMIC, which was added to a US trade blacklist in 2020, stated last year that Chinese companies should focus on advanced packaging to overcome their weaknesses in developing more sophisticated chips.
The move by SK Group of South Korea comes after Biden signed the CHIPS Act into law this week, which provides $52 billion in subsidies for chip manufacturing and research, as well as an estimated $24 billion investment tax credit for chip plants. According to the sources, both the R&D facilities and the chip packaging plant would be eligible for the funding.
In recent years, chipmakers in the United States have announced a flurry of expansion plans, ranging from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to Samsung Electronics and Intel.
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Social Security Recipients Could Get $1,900 More Next Year Due To Inflation.
The annual cost-of-living adjustment that Social Security recipients receive could see a sizeable increase for the upcoming year, with some experts projecting that the typical recipient could receive an additional $1,900 in 2023 to keep up with inflationary pressures. This could benefit senior citizens and others who receive Social Security benefits.
This year has been difficult for many seniors because their 2022 increase, which was 5.9%, trailed behind the highest inflation rate seen in the previous 40 years. Inflation was 8.5% higher than it was the previous year, despite the fact that consumer prices decreased in July due to a decline in the price of gasoline.
The Social Security Administration calculates the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by looking at inflation data from July, August, and September. The agency typically makes the announcement of the increase in the middle of October. According to the Older Citizens League, there is a possibility that senior citizens may experience an average monthly increase of 9.6%. The data for one of those three months is now available. If inflation remains on a downward trend, elderly citizens might be eligible for a break in 2023, which would close the benefits gap that many people are currently facing.
According to the findings of the nonpartisan group, assuming that the average monthly benefit will be $1,656 in 2022, an increase of 9.6% would result in a monthly gain of approximately $159 and an annual gain of $1,900.
Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League, said in an email that “a high COLA will be eagerly anticipated to address an ongoing shortfall in benefits that Social Security beneficiaries are experiencing in 2022 as inflation runs higher than their 5.9% COLA.” “A high COLA will be eagerly anticipated to address an ongoing shortfall in benefits that Social Security beneficiaries are experiencing in 2022,”
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by workers, is the index that the Social Security Administration uses to determine how much of an increase or decrease to make to beneficiaries’ benefits on an annual basis.
The CPI-W saw a 9.1% year-over-year increase in July, according to data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday. It is true that there are still two months of data still to come in, and depending on the course that inflation takes in August and September, the yearly cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security might end up being higher or lower. According to Johnson, she is estimating that the COLA will fall somewhere in the range of 9.3% to 10.1%, with 9.6% being the most likely outcome given the most current data.
According to Johnson, the typical senior is missing out on approximately $58 in monthly financial support due to the fact that the average monthly benefit for the current year sits at approximately $1,656.
She went on to say that this may be one reason why more elderly people are turning to government aid programs. In 2021, over 37% of elderly citizens who were questioned by the organization reported that they had received assistance from programs designed for those with low incomes. According to the data from the Census, approximately 16% of older citizens were given help depending on their requirements prior to the pandemic.
After suffering a blow earlier this year as a result of the cost-of-living adjustment for Medicare of 5.9% not keeping pace with inflation, many seniors have now taken another hit as a result of the premium increase for Medicare Part B, which includes coverage for visits to the doctor, outpatient care, and some medications.
The provision of the expensive and highly contentious Alzheimer’s medicine Aduhelm by Medicare led to an increase in the program’s overall expenses. However, Medicare has announced that it will limit the use of Aduhelm, while the drug’s producer has reduced the cost of the medication.
Johnson stated that as a result of these changes, it is feasible that the premiums for Part B may not increase by a significant amount in 2023.
Online Shopping Prices Are Plummeting.
Before the advent of Covid-19, the world of internet purchasing had a long period of time during which it was unaffected by inflation.
In June of 2020, prices on e-commerce websites started going up, marking the beginning of an extraordinary string of 25 consecutive months of price hikes that highlighted the tremendous price pressures impacting the economy of the United States.
That run has at long last come to an end. According to a research that was published on Tuesday by Adobe, online prices decreased by 1% from the previous year in the month of July, putting an end to a run of nearly two years of steady inflation.
According to Adobe, the change is even more obvious when compared on a month-over-month basis, as costs for online purchases fell by 2% in July.
The findings are encouraging in regard to the ongoing inflation situation, as they indicate a potential easing of the pricing pressures that have been putting a strain on consumers and raising fears of a recession.
Adobe noticed that the prices of groceries purchased online are continuing to go up, despite the fact that it may be some time before inflation returns to anything resembling normal levels.
The United States economy is plagued by persistently high levels of inflation.
The year-over-year increase in consumer prices in June was 9.1%, making it the largest annual increase in consumer prices in more than 40 years. It is anticipated that a fresh report that will be released on Wednesday will reveal that inflation decreased in July, although it still remained uncomfortably high at 8.7%.
Even if a slowing of inflation would be a welcome development, the causes that are underlying the shift in price online might not be good news. Adobe attributed this decline to a number of factors, including “waving consumer confidence and a decrease in purchasing,” as well as oversupply on the part of some retailers.
Walmart, Target (TGT), and Best Buy (BBY) have lately issued similar warnings about an inventory glut, which is eating into profitability and prompting price cuts.
According to Adobe, a 9.3% year-over-year drop in the price of electronics led to the deflation in online costs. Electronics are the category in which consumers spend the most money.
In addition to consumer electronics, the prices of toys purchased online dropped significantly by 8.2% in the month of July, according to data provided by Adobe. According to Adobe, prices for garments purchased online increased for 14 consecutive months until experiencing a 0.1% year-over-year decrease in June. This deflationary movement persisted in July, as seen by a 1% year-over-year decline in online garment prices and a 6.3% month-over-month decline in the same prices.
In instance, Walmart (WMT) pointed to the garment industry as one in which the retail industry leader is being compelled to lower prices on existing inventory.
Despite the fact that there has been a return to price deflation in online shopping as a whole, Adobe discovered that prices have risen in the opposite way in a few important areas.
According to the findings of the survey, the average price of groceries purchased online set a new high point in July, increasing by 13.4% on an annual basis. This is a significant increase when compared to the prior records, which stood at 10.3% in April and 11.7% in May.
In a similar vein, Adobe reported that the prices of pet supplies purchased online experienced a year-over-year increase of 12.6%, which not only set a new record but also marked the 27th consecutive month of growing prices.