“Supply may not be as impaired as we think because other areas will compensate for any losses from Ukraine, and it is happening across the board,” said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services in London.
It is anticipated that Australia, which is one of the top exporters of wheat, will produce another massive crop this year. On the other hand, corn is piling up outside bins in the principal growing region of Brazil. The worry that spring weather problems would drastically cut down on the amount of land used for growing grain and soybeans in North America has dissipated.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex is on course to have its worst monthly loss since 2011. Concerns about decreasing grain and oilseed supplies, as well as fears that an economic downturn could reduce demand, have pushed crop futures lower from recent highs. While such improvements often take time to reach grocery shelves, Darden Restaurants Inc., owner of the Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse restaurants, reports that chicken and beef prices are cooling slightly.
Fuel pump costs will also have a significant impact on the direction of food inflation for the rest of the year. According to Joe Glauber, former head economist of the US Department of Agriculture, supermarket prices are projected to “moderate over the next six months, particularly if oil prices decline.”
As of June 24, the average daily price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States had fallen for ten consecutive days after reaching some of its highest levels on record. Crude oil futures are down more than 10% from a near all-time high in the days after Russia’s late-February invasion on Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain and vegetable-oil shippers. Fertilizer, a major expense for farmers, has fallen after reaching new highs.
The United Nations’ food price index fell from a record high in March after the war stifled Ukrainian exports and provoked a slew of sanctions against Russia. Even if the rate of increase slows, high food prices will continue to put pressure on the poor. A government prediction released last week predicts that food prices will rise by much to 8.5 percent this year, however the analysis did not account for the recent decline in agricultural futures.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the more positive commodity watchers, claimed prices haven’t peaked yet, despite Bloomberg’s broad index of spot commodities falling around 13% from a record high.
“We agree that when the economy is in a recession for long enough, commodity demand falls and hence prices, fall,” experts such as Jeffrey Currie stated in a note. “We are not yet at that state, with economic growth and end-user demand simply slowing, not falling outright.”
Darden Restaurants is enthusiastic about the future. The Orlando, Fla.-based company says it is not passing on higher meat, dairy, and wheat prices to customers because it does not expect the higher expenses to last. Meat prices are starting to “come down a little bit,” and impending crop harvests could help lower wheat prices, according to Chief Financial Officer Rajesh Vennam last week.
Wheat and soybean futures have lost roughly 15% this month, while maize has fallen 13%. Coffee, sugar, and cocoa have all taken a step back.
Food is more of a national security issue in China than an inflation concern. As grain and cooking-oil prices fall, June consumer-price growth in China is projected to be less than 2.5 percent, according to Zhaopeng Xing, senior China analyst at ANZ Bank China Co. in Shanghai.
However, given the uncertain future for grain supplies from Ukraine, India, and other key exporters, he believes it is still too early to declare an end to food inflation.
Palm oil, the world’s most widely used vegetable oil, has fallen almost 30% from its peak as leading shipper Indonesia increases exports to reduce bloated stocks. The decline, combined with a drop in soybean oil and other commodities, might mean cheaper household products like chocolate, margarine, and shampoo. However, as with other agricultural markets, any sign of supply disruption or adverse weather might spark another wild ride.
For the time being, the reduction in essential commodities may provide a much-needed halt in inflation.
“Markets would really love to be able to breathe less stressfully again,” said Arnaldo Correa, a partner at Archer Consulting in Sao Paulo. “Light a candle for your guardian angel, and let’s see how things will play out.”