Apple (AAPL) stocks have declined by more than 20 percent this year. Concerns about sluggish profit growth and a faltering economy have severely impacted the FAANGs (Facebook -now Meta, Apple, Amazon, & Google) of Big Tech and other momentum stocks. In this dismal market for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, however, numerous blue-chip healthcare firms have shown substantial gains.
Merck (MRK) and biotechnology leader Amgen (AMGN) are among Dow’s best performers. McKesson (MCK), Vertex (VRTX), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Cigna (CI) are S&P 500 winners as well. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Humana (HUM) are all near record highs.
Notably, these are not the large Covid vaccination supplies either. Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), Moderna (MRNA), and Novavax (NVAX) have all decelerated in 2022 after seeing significant price increases in 2021. Gilead (GILD) and Regeneron (REGN) are also in the red this year as antiviral medicine manufacturers.
The present economic cycle is more influential than the epidemic in driving the big rise of other healthcare firms. During turbulent times, health care equities frequently perform well. Even during a recession, they are viewed as reliable enterprises that deliver products and services that consumers require.
In addition, a number of market leaders in the healthcare industry provide substantial dividends and are relatively inexpensive relative to the rest of the market.
In a recent analysis, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas, Solita Marcelli, stated that healthcare is trading at an appealing valuation for a late-cycle environment.
Since 2003, she said, global healthcare companies have tended to outperform the overall market by more than 6% when the manufacturing sector is in decline. (The May reading of the ISM Manufacturing Index was the second-lowest since May 2020.)
An economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, Lauren Goodwin, noted in a study that “as long as economic growth remains in flux,” investors should continue with quality equities with a “defensive bent.” In addition to healthcare, she mentioned utilities and real estate as two more sectors noted for their high payouts.
An increase in mergers could also benefit the healthcare industry. This year, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and GSK (previously Glaxo Smith Kline) announced multi-billion-dollar agreements.
There are inherent hazards. Depending on the outcome of the midterm elections, regulators and legislators may scrutinize healthcare corporations more closely. If Republicans win control of the House and Senate, the future of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and its impact on prescription pricing could be called into question.
However, as long as the Federal Reserve continues to rapidly raise interest rates and investors remain concerned about inflation, healthcare stocks may continue to do well regardless of what occurs on Capitol Hill.
The stock market has experienced a flight to quality, according to Edward Campbell, co-head of the multi-asset team at PGIM Quantitative Solutions. “I’m not surprised to see more classically defensive sectors like healthcare continue to do well.”
Fears of a recession are mounting as a result of rate hikes, soaring oil and gas prices, and housing market problems. However, one of the most vital aspects of the US economy, the job market, remains robust.
In the middle of the Great Resignation, workers are in the proverbial driver’s seat, commanding substantial compensation as firms struggle to hire staff. But could the job market be about to take a turn for the worse as well?
Friday, the government releases June payroll data. The statistics will conclude a week filled with employment-related headlines, including weekly unemployment figures, monthly reports from payroll processor ADP regarding private-sector jobs, and the government’s job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey.
Economists predict that 295,000 new jobs were created in June. This is still a strong number, although it is lower than the 390,000 jobs added in May and the revised increase of 436,000 jobs in April.
The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 3.6%, but it is likely to gradually begin to rise. According to forecasts made at the Fed’s most recent meeting earlier this month, members of the central bank anticipate that the unemployment rate would end this year at 3.7%, rise to 3.9% in 2023 and reach 4.1% in 2024.
Obviously, this is still historically low. As pay growth begins to stall, though, there are concerns that American workers won’t be able to keep up with soaring inflation. The average hourly wage increased by 5.2% year-over-year in May, down from 5.5% in April.
Economists, investors, and job searchers will closely monitor the June data to determine if wage growth has deteriorated further.
China State-Owned Giants May Delist From US Exchanges
Five of China’s largest state-owned corporations want to delist from US exchanges as the two countries struggle to agree on auditing Chinese businesses.
China Life Insurance Co., PetroChina Co., and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. announced their delisting intentions Friday, together with Aluminum Corp. of China and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co.
The US and China have been at conflict for 20 years over American inspectors’ access to Chinese company audit work files. Negotiators haven’t reached a deal despite a 2024 deadline to shut down noncompliant enterprises. Mainland China and Hong Kong are the only two jurisdictions that don’t allow PCAOB inspections, citing security and confidentiality concerns.
As US and Chinese officials struggle to achieve a settlement, speculation mounts that sensitive Chinese companies could leave US markets willingly.
“These state-owned firms are in vital areas and may have access to information foreign regulators don’t,” said Saxo Markets strategist Redmond Wong.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said the delisting plans were business-related.
Bloomberg Intelligence projected in May that 300 Chinese and Hong Kong companies worth $2.4 trillion risk being removed off US exchanges as the SEC raises scrutiny. China Life, PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., and Baidu Inc.
Uncertain if delisting will improve discussions on audit inspections, a US regulatory requirement aimed to safeguard investors from accounting frauds and other financial wrongdoing. The 2024 deadline comes from a popular 2020 bill, the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.
PCAOB Chair Erica Williams said a voluntarily delisting may not stop the board from reviewing audit work papers. The PCAOB’s jurisdiction to investigate was retrospective, so the watchdog could still require work files from departing corporations, Williams noted.
If a corporation or issuer delists this year, it doesn’t matter to Williams because he wants to know if they committed fraud last year.
Alibaba joined a growing list of corporations that could be booted off American exchanges on July 29.
Alibaba stated in July it was seeking a Hong Kong main listing, joining Bilibili and Zai Lab. The switch might help corporations attract more Chinese investors and provide a model for US-listed Chinese enterprises facing delisting.
Alibaba stated in August it would aim to keep its NYSE and HKE listings.
Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, China Life, and Sinopec sank 3% in US pre-market trade. PetroChina lost 1% and Kraneshares CSI China Internet Fund ETF sank 1.8%.
China considers eight companies listed on major US exchanges to be “national-level Chinese state-owned enterprises,” according to a congressional investigation. China Southern Airlines Co., Huaneng Power International Inc., Aluminum Corp. of China, China Eastern Airlines Corp., and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical.
Delistings will have little impact on the companies because their New York shares are thinly traded, but they highlight rising US-China tensions, said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Marvin Chen.
Relations between the superpowers have been tight following Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked Chinese military drills near the island.
Congress may speed up the delisting deadline to 2023, adding pressure for the two parties to achieve a compromise.
The PCAOB chair declined to set a deadline for reaching a deal with Chinese officials, but said it must be soon.
China Mobile Ltd., China Telecom Corp., and China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd. were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in January 2018 after President Trump banned investment in Chinese enterprises with military ties. Huaneng Power International plans to delist owing to poor volume and administrative complexity and costs.
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Tesla Stock Rises As Elon Musk Sells $6.9 Billion Worth of Shares
“It is crucial to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock,” Musk wrote, “in the event that Twitter compels this deal to close, which is hopefully improbable, and certain equity partners don’t come through.”
The announcement that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk had sold approximately $7 billion worth of stock in order to set aside cash for his contentious purchase of Twitter caused the company’s shares to rise on Wednesday (TWTR).
According to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Musk sold 7.92 million shares between August 5 and August 9, resulting in a profit of around $6.9 billion. After sales of approximately 8.5 billion in early April, he still controls approximately 155 million shares of the clean energy carmaker, which accounts for 15% of the company.
Musk claimed that he wanted to avoid a “emergency sale” of Tesla stock in the event that “Twitter forces this deal to close *and* some equity partners don’t come through” on the $44 billion transaction. He took advantage of a 47% rally in Tesla shares between late May and August 5, when the first sale was made, in order to accomplish this goal.
He also stated that he would repurchase the stock in the event that the Twitter deal, which is scheduled to be heard by a judge from the Delaware court system in the middle of October, is finally unsuccessful.
During the late morning session of trading on Wednesday, Tesla shares were marked 2% higher to reach a price of $868.20 a share. In the meantime, Twitter shares increased by 3.4% to $44.30 per share.
Since the beginning of July, Musk has been in a public dispute with Twitter regarding the number of accounts on the social media platform that are referred to as “fake” or “bots.” Musk believes that these accounts constitute a material change to the terms of the merger that he agreed to in the spring.
Twitter, for its part, is suing Musk to force him to purchase the group for $44 billion, or $54.20 per share. In court papers published last week, Twitter argued that the idea of a “billionaire founder of multiple companies, advised by Wall Street bankers and lawyers” being “hoodwinked into signing a $44 billion merger agreement” is “as implausible and contrary to fact as it sounds.” Twitter is suing Musk to force him to purchase the group for $44 billion.
Twitter was forced to manage a slowdown in worldwide ad spending and the uncertainty tied to Musk’s disputed takeover, which resulted in the company posting an unexpected loss for the second quarter late last month.
The company stated that this was due to “headwinds in the advertising industry associated with the macroenvironment as well as uncertainty related to the pending acquisition of Twitter by an affiliate of Elon Musk.” Group revenues decreased by 1% to $1.14 billion, again falling short of the Street forecast of a $1.315 billion tally. Twitter said that this was because of “uncertainty related to the pending acquisition of Twitter by an affiliate of Elon Musk.”
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New Tax Credit Affects Top-Selling EVs
In a win for Democrats, the Inflation Reduction Act passed the Senate and will likely pass the House. If all goes as planned, President Biden might sign the bill in two weeks.
For the auto sector, the proposal expands the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs by removing the 200,000-vehicle cap.
While it sounds excellent for automakers, new requirements mean 70% of EVs and PHEVs won’t qualify for the credit.
72 EV models are currently available in the U.S., including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric vehicles, says John Bozzella, CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group that includes GM, Toyota, and Ford. 70% of EVs would be disqualified when the measure passes, and none would qualify for the entire credit when further sourcing restrictions take effect. Zero.”
These changes will make EV tax incentives more restrictive:
North America must finish assembly.
Car MSRP must be below $55,000, and trucks and SUVs below $80,000.
The U.S. or free-trade partners must supply battery materials by 2024.
In less than two years, the last battery sourcing component will mean no EVs qualify for the credit, says Bozzella. The plan imposes consumer income criteria that will make many high-earning Americans and joint filers ineligible for tax advantages.
The Automotive Alliance for Innovation lists all zero-emission EVs and PHEVs on sale in America, as well as EV and battery producers.
Yahoo Finance has verified how the top 5 EVs and PHEVs in America will fare under the new guidelines.
Models 3 and Y
Following enactment, both U.S.-made Model 3 cars and Model Y SUVs, the best selling EVs in America, would qualify for the tax credit, a benefit for Tesla given the credit is currently being phased out. Registration data is used as a proxy for Tesla Model 3 and Model Y sales.
Only the $46,990 Model 3 RWD qualifies. Assuming the Model Y is an SUV, both versions qualify (Long Range – $65,990; Performance – $69,990).
Ford Mustang Mach-E finished second in EV/PHEV sales last quarter with 10,941 units. The $43,895 base Mach-E might qualify as a vehicle or SUV, and because it’s produced in Mexico, it would qualify for the tax credit.
Last quarter, 10,861 Wrangler 4xE plug-in hybrids were sold. With a starting MSRP of $54,595, it would qualify for the tax credit because it’s built at Jeep’s Toledo, Ohio plant.
Kia EV6 and Hyundai IONIQ5
The all-electric Hyundai IONIQ 5 sold 7,448 units in the second quarter, and Kia’s EV6 EV sold 7,287. The IONIQ 5 and Kia EV 6 are constructed in South Korea, so they don’t qualify for the tax credit. This is a hit for Hyundai as the IONIQ 5 and EV6 have been hailed by reviewers and start at $39,950 and $33,900 respectively. The affordable MSRPs may still make both feasible options for many Americans despite loss of the credit.
GM’s Bolt EV and Bolt EUV sold 6,945 units last quarter. With a starting price of $25,600, it’s the cheapest pure electric vehicle on the market, and final assembly will take place at GM’s Orion factory in Michigan.
Audi e-tron, Polestar 2
Popular cars including the Audi e-tron, Lucid Air, Polestar 2 sedan, and Porsche Taycan that currently qualify for the federal tax credit will not if the bill is enacted into law.
Manufacturers may no longer need incentives, so all is not lost.
Sam Fiorani, Vice President of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, told Yahoo Finance, “By the time vehicle makers can take full credit for the legislation, the market will be ready to accept electric vehicles and the incentives will no longer be necessary.” Without incentives, the buyer’s pricing won’t alter much. These incentives boost prices and boost manufacturing profits.
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