The dollar’s run has few analogues in recent history. Its ascension is a result of the Fed’s relentless rate-hiking (another 75 basis points on Wednesday) and has left a trail of devastation: Increasing food import costs and worsening global poverty; causing a debt crisis and toppling a government in Sri Lanka; and hurting stock and bond investors worldwide.
Some measures put the dollar at an all-time high. It’s gained 15% since mid-2021. With the Fed resolved to keep raising rates to contain inflation — even if it means sinking the US and global economy into recession — currency observers see little to stop the dollar’s rise.
It’s reminiscent of Paul Volcker’s anti-inflation drive in the 1980s. The likelihood of a redux of the Plaza Accord, an accord made to artificially rein in the dollar, is mounting. A similar deal may seem unlikely now, but market indicators imply the dollar could easily jump the same amount again, which would rattle the global financial system and cause extra agony.
“There is no kryptonite to blow up the dollar’s strength soon,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. There is no alternative to the dollar, therefore it’s pummeling economies, other currencies, and corporate profitability.
40% of the $28.5 trillion in yearly global trade is priced in dollars, thus its rapid increase is seen around the world. Its ascent risks establishing a “doom loop.”
Joey Chew, a strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said tightening financial conditions led to increasing recession fears. “There’s no quick fix.”
When global markets go crazy, investors seek a safe haven. The Bank for International Settlements says the US currency provides that security. The US economy’s size and strength are unmatched, Treasuries are one of the safest ways to hold money, and the currency dominates foreign-exchange reserves.
Top dollar indices indicate additional gains. This month’s Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index record is from 2004. The narrower ICE US Dollar Index is below 1980s levels. It would require a 54% rally to reach its 1985 Plaza Accord peak.
Surging dollar stirs rumors
This time is different, says Wells Fargo Securities’ Brendan McKenna. When the economy cools next year, the Fed should cut rates to ease pressure on the dollar. He said coordinated action to weaken the dollar and promote G-10 currencies is not a priority.
Many of these big economies’ currencies are weak. As investors seek higher rates, the Japanese yen has also fallen to a 24-year low.
Emerging markets have been hit worse. Indian rupee, Chilean peso, and Sri Lankan rupee hit historic lows this year despite central bank efforts to arrest the collapse. Hong Kong’s monetary authority bought local dollars at a record pace to protect the city’s currency peg, while Chile’s central bank intervened $25 billion after the peso fell more than 20% in five weeks.
Pictet Asset Management Ltd. strategist Luca Paolini said it won’t work. Inflation and the American currency are generation-defining phenomena that central banks in emerging nations can’t control.
A strong dollar enhances revenues for energy producers, raw material exporters, and international corporations like Toyota
that earn a lot in the US. It’s a boon for American tourists like Mila Ivanova, 33, from Fresno. Ivanova remarked in London before travelling to Scotland and Ireland that a stronger currency improves her budget.
A dollar hammers most others.
Tech giants that repatriate money to the US have suffered. Microsoft Corp. said the currency was cutting into its profitability, while IBM, which gave Microsoft its first big break during the 1980s inflation, blamed the strong dollar for a cash-flow pressure
Wall Street says don’t dispute the dollar’s dominance right now. A Bank of America Corp. poll shows bullish dollar positions are at a seven-year high.
“Only when investors are ready to embrace high-risk assets again do we expect the dollar to turn,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
In 2016 and 2018, as the Fed sought to tighten policy, the dollar strengthened, but with US inflation at a four-decade high, the Fed has less wiggle room. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen have barely mentioned the dollar’s recent gains.
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More Than 400 Industry Organizations Ask Congress To Stop Rail Strike
The leaders of Congress are being urged by more than four hundred different business organizations to be ready to avoid a freight train strike that could begin wreaking havoc on the economy as early as the following week.
In a statement sent on Monday, industry groups sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that “No one wins when the railroads stop operating.” In accordance with the Railway Labor Act of 1926, the Congress has the authority to impose a contract on both parties or to extend a “cooling-off period” for discussion in order to keep the railroads operating and prevent interruptions to interstate commerce. The laws governing employees’ time off are at the center of the disagreement between the railroad companies and their workforce.
The 449 different business associations, which range from the Aluminum Association and the Beer Institute to the US Apple Association and the Window & Door Manufacturers Association, have all stated that this is a matter of “grave urgency” due to the fact that even a temporary stoppage of work would result in a significant amount of issues. They stated that a consensual agreement between the freight train unions and the freight railroads would be the greatest possible outcome, but they emphasized that Congress needed to prepare for the worst possible outcome. “Absent a voluntary agreement, we call on you to take immediate steps to prevent a national rail strike and the certain economic destruction that would follow,” the groups wrote, pointing out that Congress has intervened 18 times in labor negotiations since 1926 when interstate commerce was threatened. “Absent a voluntary agreement, we call on you to take immediate steps to prevent a national rail strike and the certain economic destruction that would follow,” the groups wrote.
It is possible that a rail strike will take place as early as December 9, which will result in a lack of goods, an increase in costs, and a stop in the production of goods in factories. According to the estimates provided by the business organizations, this might also result in a disruption of commuter rail services, which could affect up to seven million passengers per day, as well as the transportation of 6,300 carloads of food and farm products every day.
However, the trade groups warn in the letter that the effects of a nationwide well strike will be felt by many firms as early as December 5 in the form of service outages and other impacts. They mentioned that earlier this year, there was a prospective rail strike that caused “severe disruptions” for essential goods and products, such as fertilizer, chlorine, and other things, but the strike was averted with an 11th-hour preliminary arrangement.
According to the letter, “Congress must be prepared to intervene before the end of the current’status quo’ term on December 9 to ensure continuing rail service” in the event that an agreement cannot be reached. “The unpredictability of rail service in the midst of this year’s drawn-out contract negotiation has produced an immense amount of concern.”
Outside China, Protests Are Grabbing Headlines
In China, the censors are working nonstop. Thousands of protestors have gathered in the streets of more than a dozen Chinese cities in recent days, demanding an end to strict Covid lockdown restrictions and political freedoms in a rare display of rage against the Chinese Communist Party.
For major news outlets around the world, it is one of the top stories, if not the top story. However, the unprecedented challenge to Chairman Xi Jinping has received almost little publicity for the hundreds of millions of Chinese who rely on state-run media for their news.
This is due to the fact that Chinese media have mostly ignored the rebellion, which is thought to be one of the greatest to occur in recent memory, as Xi deploys a variety of iron-fist techniques to stifle coverage and suppress the totalitarian nation’s growing acts of dissent. For instance, the state-run Xinhua News Agency’s webpage lacked any coverage of the demonstrations on Monday. In reality, a scan of its website revealed that the propaganda organization had not used the word “protest” in any digital pieces since the protests started.
Xinhua is a common news source. Attempts are being made by additional state-run media sources to completely ignore the widespread protests, which have started in at least 16 locations. The websites of the People’s Daily and China Daily, two more well-known state-controlled media outlets, did not mention the protests on Monday.
According to Jonathan Yerushalmy of The Guardian, CCTV “spending most of the morning covering the announcement of the planned launch of the Shenzhou-15 spacecraft to China’s space station on Tuesday.”
According to Philip Hsu, director of the Center for China Studies at National Taiwan University and a visiting fellow at Brookings, “the lack of media coverage, due to Xi’s control, restricts the spread of information and helps, to some extent, prevent the protests from proliferating in an unbridled fashion.”
Hsu would not rule out the idea that some coverage choices were made out of self-censorship. But this situation, according to Hsu, “reflects an even more fundamental control by the Party than if there are the directives, because the media has been extensively conditioned on what they can and cannot do without being instructed individually.”
Young protesters across China held up sheets of white paper as a metaphor for the numerous critical posts, news stories, and vocal social media accounts that were removed from the internet in a symbolic protest against the ever-tightening censorship.
The deliberate attempt by the state-run media to put an end to the demonstrations and spread official messages exposed the depths to which Xi’s mouthpieces will go to quell dissension. Given that the absence of coverage has not been able to quell the escalating protests or conceal the reality from the world that is eluding the authoritarian hold via social media, it also raises concerns about the efficacy of his propaganda machine.
It’s possible that this is the reason why state-run media is currently adopting a slightly different strategy. In some cases, these pieces appear to be intended to quiet the uproar by implying that the government will strive to “refine” its harsh Covid measures. For instance, The People’s Daily’s site included a headline that said, “Precision” is required “as cities roll out optimal COVID response.” In other words, some wiggle room is needed for the rigid Covid limits.
It remains to be seen whether that strategy will be successful. But Hsu asserted that one “important” shift brought about by the protests will be “impossible to roll back,” “no matter what happens.”
Individual citizens now understand that there is a good probability that others may join their resistance, according to Hsu.
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Buy Now Pay Later Revenue Up 78% Despite Unparalleled Inflation
Inflation reached a 40-year high this year, yet it didn’t stop the famous Black Friday. Last Friday’s discount frenzy broke the previous record by selling $9.12 billion in merchandise, outperforming the previous year by 2.3%. However, compared to other years, that sales record’s structure is somewhat different. The growth of credit and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services seems to have offset the inflationary pressure.
Beyond All Expectations, Black Friday Week
The data from Adobe Analytics collected on Saturday shows that customers used eCommerce more than ever before. One example is the $3.36 billion in sales that Shopify Merchants achieved on Black Friday, shattering previous records. Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) programs like Zip, Afterpay, Affirm, and PayPal’s Pay-in-4 have been enthusiastically adopted by consumers.
In the week of Nov. 19–25, point-of-sale loans climbed by 78%, and BNPL income increased by 81% from the previous week. Contrary to October, online sales increased by almost 200% in the following categories: toys accounted for the highest increase at 285%, followed by audio equipment (230%), electronics (221%), smart homes (271%), and fitness equipment (218%).
Gaming consoles, drones, Dyson vacuums, MacBooks, and gaming-related devices are among the most popular products. Overall, the yearly study from the National Retail Federation was accurate in predicting stronger consumer spending than it did before 2020. In addition to record BNPL orders, the Black Friday week saw a boom in mobile shopping, which, according to Salesforce, accounted for a record 48% of total online sales, up from 44% last year. With $5.29 billion and $9.12 billion respectively, Thanksgiving and Black Friday both exceeded forecasts and set records. Online buyers don’t often spend more than $3 billion every day. On Cyber Monday, which Adobe projects will generate $11.2 billion, a YoY rise of 5.1%, this trend is anticipated to continue.
Original Black Friday Created in an Inflationary Environment
After the Thanksgiving holiday and only in the US, Black Friday ushers in the start of the holiday shopping season. Beginning in the early 1950s, the term “Black Friday” referred to employees who called in sick after Thanksgiving, generally to extend the holiday into a 4-day weekend.
Since then, as consumer power increased, employees have expanded it to include escapades at the mall and clogged roads, particularly in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Black Friday was first acknowledged by The New York Times in 1975, a year after inflation reached 11.05%. Inflation peaked in 1980 at a record 13.55%.
One year later, on November 28, 1981, The Philadelphia Inquirer published the first description of Black Friday as the day when retailers collect their annual profits and turn their accounting books from red (negative) to black (positive). Where Can Customers Find Relief from Prices?
The NRF predicted that consumers will spend 6%–8% more than they did last year in the present macro environment, which is in line with the 7.7% inflation rate. The only significant product category that provided consumer comfort was clothes, with a 0.7% decrease in costs from September to October, except from used vehicle prices, which fell by 2.4%.
Nevertheless, there was a need for inventory clearance due to supply chain disruptions over the previous two years and an excessive number of orders that were carried over. This gave retail establishments plenty of room to get rid of inventory that was no longer in high demand. Clothing, TVs, appliances, and computers were included in that broad category by Adobe Analytics.
NRF estimates that households making under $75k should cut their holiday expenditures by $606 on average. Despite being fewer in number, households making over $150k should make up the difference in spending by increasing their average annual income by $1,304.
Is High Inflation Being Exit by the Economy?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October decreased from 8.2% to 7.7%, yet the percentage still indicates an increase in prices. Having said that, it seems like inflation is gradually slowing down. Crude Oil (WTI) is currently down 3% year over year, which is the biggest drop since the beginning of 2021. Additionally, the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), which measures global container freight prices, has fallen by roughly -300% from its top of $11,109 in late September to its lowest level since December 2020. Similarly, prices on the home market are dropping at their quickest rate since the Great Recession of 2008. The highest increase in more than 20 years, however, was a 15% YoY increase in credit card debt balances.
The third quarter of 2022 saw a continuation of the rise in credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances due to both strong consumer demand and increased pricing. Donghoon Lee, a research advisor for economics at the New York Fed, says
It’s interesting to note that as of September, 2.7% of the total amount of outstanding debt still had a very low debt default rate for Q3 2022. This might alter, though, if the jobless rate keeps rising. It is currently 3.7% compared to 3.5% last month.
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