What would be the best action for Moderna stocks in 2023?

Moderna has reached a critical juncture.

In the early days of the epidemic, Moderna (MRNA +4.41%) shares provided excellent returns to investors. In 2020, the stock increased by more than 400%. Despite the fact that Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine generates billions in revenue and profit, the stock is expected to fall 30% this year.

Why? In a post-pandemic environment, investors are concerned about revenue.

Looking ahead to 2023, you might be asking if Moderna’s greatest days are behind it, or if this vaccine developer still represents a good investment. In 2023, should you buy, sell, or hold Moderna? Let us investigate.

Two fantastic years

Moderna’s last two years have been remarkable. The biotech company released its first product, a coronavirus vaccine, and it quickly became a blockbuster.

The corporation reported $18.5 billion in vaccination revenue last year. This year, Moderna expects to earn at least $18 billion in vaccine revenue.

What about the following year? Moderna has provided us with some hints. To begin, it is critical to examine the shifting vaccine landscape. Governments have previously purchased coronavirus vaccines directly from Moderna and other vaccine manufacturers. This has provided companies and investors with revenue visibility.

Government contracts, on the other hand, will expire next year. Moderna and others will sell their vaccines to pharmaceutical wholesalers in a private market. We won’t have the same early visibility in this scenario as we did when government contracts were disclosed. Moderna will also face more complicated logistics as it sells to a larger number of buyers.

Advertisement

Let us now discuss revenue levels. It’s impossible to provide an accurate forecast, but we have some reasons to be optimistic. Vaccine dosage pricing will be greater than it is now, which will at least somewhat compensate for lower volume.

Moderna has stated that each dose will cost $60, while rival Pfizer has stated that its vaccine will cost $110 to $130. Pfizer also stated that its coronavirus treatments “will continue to generate multibillion-dollar revenue for the foreseeable future.”

The most important hint of all

Finally, Moderna has provided us with another – and possibly the finest – hint. The coronavirus vaccine market, according to the business, will follow in the footsteps of the flu vaccine industry, which represents 500 million to 600 million doses yearly. The yearly coronavirus booster market might range from $12 billion to $24 billion, depending on vaccination cost and uptake.

All of these factors point to the Moderna vaccine/future boosters as a blockbuster product. Even if sales are smaller than in the past, revenue could still be significant – and help move other prospects through the pipeline.

Next year could be a transition year for Moderna as it transitions to a private market. It may also take more than a year to see how many patients seek coronavirus boosters. As a result, next year is unlikely to provide a clear picture of vaccine revenue increase.

Simultaneously, Moderna may be getting closer to the market with two respiratory vaccine candidates: one for the flu and one for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). According to the business, those possible products might be available in two to three years.

Recurring income

In 2023, Moderna’s vaccine revenue is unlikely to approach current levels. However, the company may be on its way to a vaccination market that will guarantee recurring billion-dollar revenue – and a future as a multiproduct company.

In 2023, should you buy, sell, or hold Moderna? I’d recommend buying and holding.

Advertisement

Moderna has removed most of the uncertainty from the post-pandemic booster market. In reality, the stock has already begun to recover. They’ve risen by around 25% in the last three months.

Moderna Inc. is still in its early stages of development. It has over 40 programs under development, and as previously said, several candidates may be ready for commercialization soon. All of this indicates that there will be plenty of catalysts to drive the stock higher in 2023 – and over time.

For More Financial News, Click Here.