Is a Housing Market Crisis Imminent?

According to the Census Bureau, new housing market sales rose less than expected in May after a dip in April.

May sales of new single-family homes were 10.7 percentage points above April’s revised total of 629,000. In April, the new housing market plummeted 16.6 percent month-over-month to its lowest level since April 2020.  May sales were 5.9% below the May 2021 projection of 740,000.

First-time buyers are being driven out of the market by rising mortgage rates, limited inventory, inflation, and record-high home prices—34% higher than two years ago. Many folks can’t afford a house right now. Average 30-year mortgage rates climbed from 3.1% to 6.28% on June 14.

As consumer prices rise, the Federal Reserve raises its main interest rate, making borrowing more expensive, increasing housing costs, and decreasing spending.

House prices make many homes unaffordable. May 2022 new home sales averaged $449,000. The average monthly sales price was $511,400. The global cost-of-living crisis affects customers’ finances, restricting their ability to acquire new homes.

A housing-market crash?

As demand wanes, the housing market may weaken, prompting some to predict a bubble burst or market crash. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he expects a “coast-to-coast” correction this week. During the pandemic, homebuyers were tempted by low mortgage rates. As the market and new-home development recovered from the global financial crisis, purchasers fought for fewer properties.

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Home builders are less confident about building new homes due to rising costs and declining buyer demand, which could lead to a scarcity of supply. Many experts doubt the home market will implode like it did in 2008, which would be the worst-case scenario. When “no-doc loans” were still available 14 years ago, applicants were more likely to default.

Zillow economist Nicole Bachaud told Forbes that “lending standards have gotten tighter and credit scores for new mortgages are much higher on average now than they were in the early 2000s.”

“What’s much more likely is a gradual slowdown in the pace of price appreciation where home prices continue growing, just not as fast as they are now,” Bachaud said. Homeowners and lenders are also considerably stronger now than then, with higher property values and more home equity. Both won’t panic over the slowdown. The housing market may “correct” itself more gently, responding to declining demand as home prices fall. First-time purchasers, mostly Millennials, could start buying homes again.

Fannie Mae’s top economist Doug Duncan said, “Mortgage rates have ratcheted up dramatically over the past few months, and historically such large movements have ended with a housing slowdown”. Lending Tree senior economist Jacob Channel told the New York Post that rising interest rates had cooled the housing market. “This current ‘correction’ is neither unexpected nor necessarily a bad thing — especially as it will give some buyers a bit more breathing room when they’re housing hunting,” Channel stated.