Federal Reserve Could Raise Its Benchmark Rate 75 Basis Points

On Wednesday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, stated that if the current state of the economy has not changed by the time the Federal Reserve Board of Governors meets in July to determine the next move in monetary policy, she will be advocating for an increase of interest rates of 75 basis points.

In recent months, one of the most important factors driving market activity has been the Federal Reserve’s plan to continue its path of monetary tightening. This comes as the Fed looks to take aggressive action to rein in skyrocketing inflation, despite acknowledging the risk that steeper interest rate rises will increase the likelihood of an economic recession.

Inflation is currently at a 40-year high, so the Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points earlier this month. This was the largest rise in the rate since 1994.

Mester, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, stated that the meeting in July will likely entail a dispute among FOMC policymakers over whether to opt for 50 basis points or 75 basis points. Mester is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

She stated in a recent interview that “If conditions were exactly the way they were today going into that meeting — if the meeting were today — I would be advocating for 75 because I haven’t seen the kind of numbers on the inflation side that I need to see in order to think that we can go back to a 50 increase.”

Mester stated that she will be doing an analysis of the current supply and demand situations in the coming weeks prior to the meeting in order to establish the most desirable course of action regarding the tightening of monetary policy.

The present goal range for the federal funds rate is between 1.5 and 1.75 percent; however, according to the “dot plot” of individual FOMC members’ views, the Fed’s benchmark rate will be 3.4% by the end of the year.

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Mester said, “I think it’s really important that we do that, and do it expeditiously and do it consistently as we go forward, so it’s after that point where I think there is more uncertainty about how far we’ll need to go in order to rein in inflation.” “I think getting interest rates up to that 3-3.5 percent, it’s really important that we do that, and do it expeditiously and do it consistently as we go forward.”

‘Harsh adjustment’

U.S. markets dropped significantly on Tuesday following the release of a dismal reading of consumer confidence. The reading, which came in at 98.7 instead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 100, added to the unease that investors already felt regarding the sluggish growth of the economy and the potential compounding effect of aggressive monetary policy tightening.

Mester said that the experience of consumers with inflation, which reached 8.6 percent at the headline level in May, was “clouding” their confidence in the economy. In May, the headline inflation rate was 8.6 percent.

She stated that the Federal Reserve is “on a path now to bring our interest rates up to a more normal level and then probably a little bit higher into restrictive territory, so that we can get those inflation rates down so that we can sustain a good economy going forward.”

“Job one for us now is to get inflation rates under control, and I think right now that’s coloring how consumers are feeling about the economy and where it’s going.”

Mester agreed that there is a possibility of a recession as the Fed moves forward with its program of tightening. As a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce demand and bring it closer to constrained supply, her baseline projection is for growth to be slower this year, below what she refers to as “trend growth.” She sets the value of “trend growth” at 2%.

She stated, “I expect to see unemployment rates rise over the next two years to a little above 4% or 4.25%, and again that’s still very good labor market conditions.”

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“So we’re in this transition right now, and I think that’s going to be a painful one in some respects and it’s going to be a bumpy ride in some respects, but it’s very necessary that we do it to get those inflation numbers down.”